On October 21, 2024, the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) announced the launch of its first extensive study of the black market for online gambling in the UK. The research aims to improve the Commission’s ability to monitor illegal gambling activities and is expected to provide key insights by late spring 2025.
A New Approach to Understanding the Black Market
The UKGC hopes this research will help uncover why and how consumers are accessing unlicensed gambling sites. By analyzing this data, the Commission plans to enhance its ability to detect unlicensed platforms and estimate their usage among British consumers. The findings will also form the basis for improving online monitoring efforts to better understand the extent of the illegal gambling market in the UK.
Much like similar studies by other European regulators, the UKGC’s research will combine web traffic data with gambling behavior insights to assess the total financial yield, known as Gross Gambling Yield (GGY), generated by the black market.
Estimating Illegal Market Spend
The study estimates average player spending on illegal gambling platforms using data from over 139,000 online gambling accounts provided by seven major UK operators. This data, collected from July 2018 to June 2019, indicates that the average GGY per minute for online slots is approximately £0.32, as the Commission suspects most unlicensed gambling activity involves slots.
However, the UKGC has acknowledged limitations in its methodology, particularly around accounting for high spenders in other types of gambling, such as sports betting.
Analyzing Web Traffic and Search Trends
To identify unlicensed gambling sites, the Commission is using tools like Google Trends and Similarweb to track popular search terms. The top five Google search results for each term are flagged, and any affiliated websites promoting illegal gambling are reviewed. Data on web traffic and average visit duration are collected for each unlicensed site to gain a clearer picture of their usage.
International Insights on Black Market Spending
The UKGC’s efforts come as regulators in other countries, including the Netherlands and Sweden, report challenges in understanding the scale of black market spending. These countries have found that players may spend more on illegal gambling sites than on licensed ones, a trend the UKGC is considering in its own research.
The Commission also highlighted that its current model does not yet account for time spent on unlicensed platforms where no money is wagered. Updates to the GGY estimates will be made as more recent data becomes available.
Future Studies to Explore Social Media and Streaming Platforms
The UKGC plans to expand its research in the future by examining how social media and encrypted messaging apps like WhatsApp and Telegram, as well as streaming services such as Twitch and Kick, contribute to the black market. The role of these platforms in directing traffic to unlicensed gambling sites will be scrutinized.
Licensed operators are encouraged to provide relevant data to aid the Commission’s research or suggest new detection methods.
Industry Reactions to the Growing Black Market
A separate study commissioned by the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) released in September 2024 estimates that the UK’s black market for online gambling could be handling as much as £2.7 billion in bets each year. BGC CEO Grainne Hurst described the findings as “deeply concerning” and pointed to the dangerous growth of this unregulated sector.
The UKGC remains committed to tackling the unlicensed market and welcomes feedback from industry stakeholders to refine its approach and ensure a safer gambling environment for all UK consumers.
