Macau’s gambling industry saw a significant boost in February 2025, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) reaching MOP19.74 billion (USD 2.46 billion), exceeding analyst expectations and setting a positive tone for the year.
Chinese New Year Drives Growth
The 6.8% year-on-year increase can largely be attributed to the Chinese New Year Golden Week holiday, which ran from January 28 to February 4. This traditional peak tourism period brought a surge of mainland Chinese visitors to Macau’s casinos.
February’s performance represents an 8.1% increase compared to January 2025, marking the highest monthly GGR since October and helping to offset January’s disappointing 5.6% year-on-year decline.
Recovery Still Below Pre-Pandemic Levels
Despite the positive growth, February’s figures reached only 77.8% of pre-COVID February 2019 levels, when GGR was MOP25.37 billion. This highlights the ongoing recovery process in Macau’s gaming sector.
Galaxy Entertainment Group chairman Francis Lui expressed confidence in meeting the government’s annual target: “Although gaming revenue for January’s Lunar New Year may have been lower than expected, the performance in the second half of February has improved and exceeded expectations.”
Analyst Forecasts Exceeded
The market significantly outperformed analyst forecasts, which had predicted only a 0.8% year-on-year increase. JP Morgan analysts had accurately forecast February GGR of about MOP19 billion.
Combined Performance for Early 2025
Looking at the first two months of 2025 combined, GGR was up marginally over 2024, at just 0.5%. This modest growth reflects the mixed performance between January’s decline and February’s stronger results.
Premium Mass Segment Contribution
According to Jefferies, operators including Galaxy and Melco indicated they experienced a “long tail effect” from the Chinese New Year holiday, primarily driven by the premium mass segment of players.
Outlook for 2025
Analysts have adjusted their forecasts for Macau’s annual GGR growth to between 4% and 9% for 2025. Jefferies Equity Research noted the industry is “making up lost ground after a weak performance” in January.
To reach the government’s MOP240 billion target for 2025, the sector would need approximately 6.9% growth each month for the rest of the year.
Cautious Industry Perspectives
Some industry analysts remain cautious. CreditSights Inc pointed out that while visits from lower-GDP provinces could rise, they may not substantially accelerate the post-pandemic recovery to pre-crisis levels.
Seaport Research Partners shared a similar view, highlighting that despite February’s overall positive performance, Golden Week GGR declined compared to previous years.
