South Africa’s bookmakers want prediction platforms blocked until lawmakers create clear rules covering licenses, consumer safeguards, taxation, and market integrity.
Polymarket Wagering Sparks Regulatory Alarm
The South African Bookmakers’ Association has urged regulators to keep offshore prediction markets out of the country’s licensed gambling sector.
Its call follows reports that more than R700,000 was wagered through Polymarket on the identity of Johannesburg’s next mayor. Polymarket reportedly operated without a South African gambling license, meaning the betting activity fell outside local tax, advertising, and safer gambling rules.
SABA argues that prediction markets are effectively betting exchanges dressed in different clothes. Users take positions against one another on future events, while the platform earns commission rather than accepting the risk itself.
“Prediction markets are, in substance, exchange betting products operating under a different label,” SABA CEO Sean Coleman said.
The association believes operators should not escape gambling oversight simply by describing their products as forecasting tools or information markets.
Existing Laws Do Not Offer A Clear Route
South African gambling law does not contain a specific licensing category for prediction markets. SABA has also questioned whether current legislation allows betting exchanges at all, since these platforms do not operate like traditional bookmakers.
The group previously challenged the North West Gambling Board’s decision to issue licenses linked to exchange betting.
According to SABA, provincial regulators can only approve products that existing legislation clearly permits. It wants lawmakers to review the rules before prediction markets or similar peer-to-peer platforms are allowed into the regulated sector.
That review would need to stretch beyond gambling law. Political markets could also raise questions under electoral and financial legislation, particularly when users can profit from government appointments, policy decisions, or election results.
Manipulation Risks Go Beyond Sport
SABA also raised concerns about match-fixing, insider information, and financial crime.
Prediction markets can allow users to profit from a team, athlete, politician, or public body failing to deliver an expected result. That creates an obvious temptation for anyone with inside access or the ability to influence an outcome.
The danger becomes even messier when markets cover elections, legislative votes, regulatory decisions, and public appointments. A person could potentially place a wager and then try to shape the result.
South Africa currently has no dedicated monitoring system for manipulation tied to prediction markets, according to the association.
Offshore platforms can create another headache for enforcement agencies. Transactions may cross several jurisdictions, while some operators accept crypto-assets. Local authorities may struggle to obtain records, trace funds, or force a foreign company to follow South African compliance rules.
Players Could Be Left Without A Safety Net
For the average player, the licensing question is more than a fight between regulators and operators.
Customers using an offshore prediction platform may not have access to self-exclusion tools, formal complaint procedures, advertising protections, or locally enforced payout rules. When something goes wrong, chasing an overseas operator can quickly become an expensive exercise in unanswered emails.
Licensed bookmakers must also support responsible gambling programmes and meet domestic compliance standards. Offshore prediction platforms can take money from South African users without making the same contributions.
SABA added that gambling revenue generated through these platforms may leave the country without producing local tax income or supporting domestic services.
SABA Wants A Block Until New Rules Arrive
The association has asked regulators to treat prediction markets as exchange-style betting products rather than a separate financial or forecasting service.
Under its proposal, offshore platforms would remain unauthorized until South Africa introduces a full framework covering licensing, taxation, anti-money laundering controls, consumer protection, and integrity monitoring.
That does not necessarily close the door forever. It does mean prediction markets would have to stop operating in a legal grey area before they could win official approval.
For South African bettors, the argument boils down to a familiar issue: new betting products may arrive quickly, but player protections rarely move at the same speed.
