Jefferies Lifts 2025 GGR Forecast to MOP248 Billion
Jefferies has raised its 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for Macau to MOP248 billion (US$31.8 billion), up from MOP237 billion. The new projection puts the investment bank at the upper end of market expectations and ahead of official government estimates.
Analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei pointed to increased consumer spending, fueled by gains in stocks and crypto, plus a strong event calendar and new property launches. Major attractions like the NBA China Games and Macau Grand Prix are expected to help accelerate revenue through Q4.
Jefferies forecasts a 9.5% GGR increase in 2025, with Q3 and Q4 growth expected at 13.8% and 15.3% respectively. Growth is set to slow to 3.5% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
On the operator front, Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment are expected to gain ground through promotions and reinvestment strategies. MGM China and Wynn Macau are projected to hold steady, while SJM Holdings is likely to continue slipping due to satellite casino closures and a slower recovery at Grand Lisboa Palace.
CLSA Ties Yuan Strength to Higher Betting Budgets
Brokerage CLSA has also upgraded its outlook, albeit more cautiously. Its revised 2025 GGR estimate now sits at HK$245.7 billion (US$30.6 billion), a 1.3% increase. CLSA also bumped its 2026 projection by 3.5% to HK$255.6 billion (US$31.8 billion).
Analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan credit the yuan’s recent appreciation — up 0.4% against the US dollar since July — as a key factor. The stronger exchange rate boosts spending power for mainland Chinese gamblers converting their cash in Macau.
August GGR hit MOP22.16 billion, the highest monthly figure since January 2020. The strong showing pushed cumulative GGR for the first eight months of 2025 to MOP163.05 billion, a 7.2% year-on-year gain.
CLSA’s research also found that nearly half (47%) of surveyed Chinese gamblers would increase their gaming budgets if the yuan strengthens further. The brokerage points to past data: when the yuan rose 4% between January and November 2017, Macau’s daily GGR jumped 24% over the same period.
Chinese Economy Boosting Casino Tourism
Beyond currency effects, CLSA says China’s broader economic recovery is giving Macau a lift. Improvements in factory profitability and gains in the stock market are putting more cash into the hands of business owners and investors — key demographics for Macau’s higher-end casino segment.
These wealth effects are encouraging more outbound travel and larger gaming budgets. The brokerage expects 2025 EBITDA to rise 7% to US$8.4 billion, with further gains to between US$8.9 billion and US$9.7 billion in 2026 and 2027.
Golden Week Bookings Signal Strong Q4 Performance
Macau’s October Golden Week is shaping up to be a major revenue driver. CLSA reports 33 of 38 casino hotels are fully booked five weeks ahead of the holiday, with average room prices up 13% year-on-year.
The October 1–8 holiday, covering National Day and the Mid-Autumn Festival, is a critical period for Macau’s casinos. Advanced bookings and rising hotel rates point to robust visitation and gambling activity.
CLSA expects hotel occupancy to slightly ease as more rooms are released closer to the date, but current trends are ahead of 2024 levels and set a positive tone heading into peak season.
Macau collected $6.64 billion in gaming taxes during the first seven months of 2025 — 60% of the government’s annual target. A strong Golden Week could push the industry even closer to full-year goals.
Government Forecast Lags Behind Market Momentum
Despite the upward revisions from analysts, the Macau government remains cautious. Its official 2025 GGR estimate was revised down in June from MOP240 billion to MOP228 billion, citing weaker-than-expected early-year performance.
Yet, the latest figures suggest momentum is picking up. Both Jefferies and CLSA believe a mix of event-driven traffic, economic tailwinds, and favorable currency conditions will keep GGR on an upward trajectory well into 2026.
With Q3 and Q4 expected to deliver double-digit growth, the industry appears set to outpace official projections — and could even challenge pre-pandemic benchmarks sooner than expected.
